Political theory.

So, John Negroponte became deputy secretary of state last week. I've got a theory about that: The reason for the move is Condoleeza Rice is preparing to enter the presidential race. By moving Negroponte to assistant, he's better positioned to take over the office when Condi leaves to pursue the nomination.

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interrobang
Just think of the unbelievable balls of the Republicans! She has been shown over and over to be a huge liar, and yet they think they can run her for president.
allaboutgeorge
[this is good]
Maybe she's getting ready to replace an "ailing" Dick Cheney, or (in line with the general post-election Cabinet reshuffling) preparing to escape from D.C. for good.

CNN, about three and a half months ago: "Laura Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice emerged popular. The poll said 68 percent have a favorable opinion of the first lady, while 23 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her. Rice's numbers are 57 percent favorable and 30 percent unfavorable -- the same favorable rating as in April, but she had a lower unfavorable rating -- 22 percent -- at that time."

Pew Research Center, about three weeks ago (from a report titled "Public to '08 Contenders -- It's Too Early"): "Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates, recently confirmed as the new secretary of defense, are viewed favorably by about two-thirds (66% each) of those who can rate them. However, nearly half of Americans (48%) are not familiar enough with Gates to give a rating."
Andrew
I mentioned my theory to my dad, and his feeling is that Condi is too closely associated with an unpopular administration -- and, more importantly, with an extremely unpopular war -- to be a viable candidate. But those numbers you quote are pretty good.

Hadn't thought of the "replace Cheney" angle, though.

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